In addition to our Q3 2020 Country & Sector Risk updates, Coface's Political Risk Index highlights a dual trend: a decrease in the risk of conflict at a global level, but an increase in the risk of political and social fragility.
German companies want to cash in as early as possible, according to the fourth edition of Coface’s survey on corporate payment experience in Germany, conducted in July and early-August 2020, with 753 participating companies located in Germany.
Turnover for the first semester: €725m, down 0.6% at constant FX and perimeter: Client retention and new business achieve record levels, with a positive net production of €33m. First effects of re-pricing are now visible (+0.2%). Revenues from services progress by 7%, including information services up by 13%. Client activities continue to slowdown – a trend expected to continue over the following quarters.
Foreign trade and inclusion in supply chains had already increased in recent years, supported by EU membership by most CEE (Central and Eastern European) countries in 2004.
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a mobility crisis, mainly because of physical distancing requirements and the necessity to avoid confined spaces, to limit the virus’propagation. This has had a disastrous impact on the global transport sector, with air passenger transport being the most affected segment.
As the COVID-19 epidemic hits the United States very hard, Coface forecasts in its baseline scenario that the country's GDP will contract by 5.6% in 2020, before rebounding by 3.3% in 2021. Nevertheless, this forecast is threatened by the resurgence of the outbreak in several states, which are already pausing or even reversing the resumption of activity after the extensive lockdown of April.
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